As the 2024 U.S. presidential election draws nearer, polls show a highly competitive race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Various recent surveys highlight the back-and-forth nature of this contest, with both candidates holding narrow leads in different polls. The evolving polling data sheds light on voter sentiment and the potential outcome of a closely watched election.
Key Polling Facts
Several recent polls offer insights into where Trump and Harris currently stand among voters:
- CNBC Poll: In a survey released Thursday, Trump holds a slight lead over Harris, 48% to 46%. The poll surveyed registered voters and has a margin of error of 3.1%. This represents a shift in Trump’s favor since August, when Harris led in a Wall Street Journal poll.
- Wall Street Journal Poll: In another poll of registered voters released Wednesday, Trump leads Harris 47% to 45%, with a margin of error of 2.5%. This is another example of how Trump’s support has grown since earlier polling showed Harris ahead.
- HarrisX/Forbes Survey: Nationally, Trump leads Harris by two points among likely voters, 51% to 49%, according to a HarrisX/Forbes survey published Wednesday. Without including voters who are still leaning, Trump’s lead narrows to 49% to 48%.
- Monmouth University Poll: While Trump may have a slight lead in some polls, Harris has the advantage in others. A Monmouth University poll conducted from October 17 to 21 shows Harris ahead, with 47% of respondents saying they would definitely or probably vote for her, compared to Trump’s 44%.
- Economist/YouGov Poll: In this survey of likely voters, Harris leads Trump by three points, 49% to 46%, when factoring in third-party candidates. This poll, released Wednesday, has a margin of error of 3% and reflects a one-point dip in Harris’ lead compared to earlier surveys.
- Morning Consult Poll: Harris maintains a four-point lead over Trump in this weekly poll, standing at 50% to Trump’s 46%. These results have been consistent over the past two weeks, though they represent a slight decline from previous weeks when Harris led 51% to 45%.
- Reuters/Ipsos Poll: Harris leads Trump by three points, 46% to 43%, in this poll released Tuesday. While Harris still holds the edge, the gap has narrowed compared to last week’s poll, which also gave Harris a three-point lead. The margin of error in this poll is +/-2%.
- USA Today/Suffolk University Poll: In this poll of likely voters taken October 14-18, Harris leads Trump by one point, 45% to 44%, with a margin of error of 3.1%. This is a notable shift from August when Harris led by five points in a similar poll conducted by the same organizations.
- Emerson College Poll: Harris leads by one point, 49% to 48%, in this survey of likely voters. Earlier polls from Emerson College in September and October showed Harris leading by two points, while a poll from August had Harris ahead by four points.
Overall, the polling data indicates a very tight race between Trump and Harris, with each candidate experiencing small fluctuations in support across various surveys. Harris has erased Trump’s initial lead, which was more pronounced in early polling before her formal entry into the race.
Who is Favored to Win?
According to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast, Trump is favored to win 51 times out of 100, compared to 49 for Harris. The model predicts a narrow victory for Trump, though the race remains extremely competitive. Political analyst Nate Silver noted that this election is one of the closest forecasts he has seen, with the odds frequently shifting around the 50/50 mark.
Silver’s latest analysis gives Trump a slight 52.8% to 46.9% edge over Harris. However, Silver acknowledged that such a close race means any small event could tilt the outcome either way.
Big Number: 0.2 Points
That’s the margin by which Harris leads Trump in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average, illustrating just how close the race remains. FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Harris with a slightly larger lead of 1.8 points, while Nate Silver’s own forecast has Harris ahead by 1.6 points in his Silver Bulletin.
Swing States Performance
Swing states will likely determine the final outcome of the 2024 election, and both candidates are showing strength in different regions:
- Harris leads in key swing states such as Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin.
- Trump is ahead in important battlegrounds like North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.
- In Pennsylvania, one of the most hotly contested states, Trump and Harris are tied.
Given the narrow margins in each of these states, the race remains highly competitive, with the outcome still uncertain.
Surprising Fact: Harris’ Lead Among Latino Voters Shrinking
While Harris still holds an advantage over Trump among Latino voters, that lead appears to be shrinking. A poll released by NBC News on September 29 found that 54% of Latino voters supported Harris, compared to 40% for Trump. However, this represents a decline from past elections, when Democratic candidates held larger leads among Latino voters. In 2020, Biden led Trump by 36 points among Latino voters, while in 2016, Hillary Clinton led by 50 points.
The declining support for Harris among Latino voters is a notable shift that could impact the overall outcome of the election, especially in key states with significant Latino populations.
Impact of the Debate on Polls
The first debate between Harris and Trump, hosted by ABC News on September 10, seems to have had minimal impact on the overall polling landscape. Pre-debate surveys showed Harris’ polling surge had plateaued, and post-debate surveys reinforced this trend.
For example, a NPR/PBS/Marist survey conducted September 3-5 showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, a drop from her three-point lead in August.
Post-debate polls found that most respondents believed Harris performed better than Trump during the debate. A New York Times/Siena poll showed 67% of voters said Harris did well in the debate, compared to 40% who said the same for Trump. However, these positive reviews did not result in a significant bump for Harris in terms of overall support.
An ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted after the debate showed Harris leading Trump 52% to 46% among likely voters and 51% to 47% among registered voters, similar to her lead in previous surveys.
Key Background: Harris’ Candidacy and Rise in the Polls
Vice President Kamala Harris officially entered the 2024 presidential race on July 21, following President Joe Biden’s decision to step down from seeking re-election after a poor performance in a June debate. Since then, Harris has gained momentum within her party and has seen growing support among Democratic voters.
The Democratic National Convention quickly rallied behind Harris, with 99% of delegates voting to nominate her in August. Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, while Trump named Ohio Senator JD Vance as his vice-presidential pick.
Since entering the race, Harris has steadily improved her standing in the polls. Democratic enthusiasm for the election has nearly doubled, from 46% in June to 85% in recent weeks, according to a Monmouth University poll. Republican enthusiasm, meanwhile, has remained stagnant at 71%.
With the race still too close to call, both candidates are gearing up for what promises to be one of the most competitive elections in recent U.S. history.
